India ordered sugar dealers to hold no more than 100 tonnes from 15 October, half the present limit, a curb on the trade that buys from twelve listed mills with ₹44,269 crore of sales.
The food ministry's order of 1 October also halves, to 15 days, the time a dealer may keep stock, and runs to 30 November, across Dussehra on 20 October and Diwali on 8 November, Business Standard and BusinessLine reported. Dealers in Kolkata and Assam may hold 200 tonnes. The government said retail prices have fallen about 15% from their August peak.
A dealer allowed 100 tonnes for 15 days buys less at a time. Under a separate order of 30 September, mills collectively have a quota of 14 lakh tonnes for the first half of October and must sell at least 45% of their allotted quota in the first week. In early September, under a looser limit, mills could not sell their required share without cutting prices and traders were not lifting stock, an industry executive told BusinessLine.
The mills have little margin to give. The twelve made ₹1,024 crore before tax and one-off items in the four quarters to June, 2.3 paise on the rupee, according to Kiwaro's calculations from their filings. Eleven made ₹1,792 crore; Shree Renuka Sugars lost ₹768 crore, and its group accounts show ₹725 crore of interest against an operating loss. After one-off charges, chiefly ₹848 crore at EID Parry, the twelve report ₹158 crore.
They carry the season's sugar on their books. The five whose balance sheets Kiwaro holds had ₹7,268 crore of stock on 31 March, the seasonal peak, 4% more than a year earlier and equal to between 40% and 52% of a year's revenue; on 30 September last year, at the season's end, the same five held ₹2,395 crore.
| Company, standalone accounts, four quarters to June 2026 | Revenue, ₹ crore | Profit before tax and one-off items, ₹ crore | Stock on 31 March 2026, ₹ crore | Stock as share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shree Renuka Sugars | 8,675 | −768 | ||
| Triveni Engineering | 7,464 | 408 | 2,986 | 40% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills | 6,366 | 513 | ||
| Dalmia Bharat Sugar | 3,525 | 281 | ||
| Dhampur Bio Organics | 3,225 | 54 | ||
| EID Parry | 3,105 | 106 | 1,278 | 41% |
| Dhampur Sugar Mills | 2,851 | 91 | ||
| Avadh Sugar & Energy | 2,756 | 103 | 1,433 | 52% |
| Uttam Sugar Mills | 2,093 | 114 | 931 | 44% |
| Ugar Sugar Works | 1,632 | 32 | ||
| Dwarikesh Sugar | 1,355 | 21 | ||
| Magadh Sugar & Energy | 1,222 | 69 | 641 | 52% |
| Twelve together | 44,269 | 1,024 | 7,268 (five mills) |
Prices moved after those accounts closed. The government's wholesale index for sugar rose 16% between June and August, from 116.2 to 134.9, the highest in a record that starts in April 2023; it has no September reading yet. The government says mill-gate prices have since fallen about 28% from their peak and held steady for three weeks, a claim on its own measure that the index cannot yet confirm. Retail sugar, which went above ₹70 a kilogram, averaged ₹61 on 7 September after 10 lakh tonnes of raw sugar was allowed in free of duty, BusinessLine reported, and traders who had stocked up for the festivals faced losses.
| Date | Order | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 October | Sugar dealers' stock limit, 15 October to 30 November | 200 tonnes, held up to 30 days | 100 tonnes, held up to 15 days |
| 30 September | Share of the fortnight's sugar quota mills must sell in its first week | 40% | 45% |
| 23 September | Basic customs duty on crude palm and soybean oil; on crude sunflower oil | 10%; 10% | 5%; nil |
| 15 September | Sugar dealers' stock limit | 400 tonnes | 200 tonnes |
| 1 August | Sugar dealers' stock limit imposed | none | 400 tonnes, held up to 30 days |
| Under study | Import duty on red lentils and chickpeas; on yellow peas | 10%; 30% |
The government's orders on food prices since August, newest first. Sources: Business Standard, the Economic Times, BusinessLine, Mint.
On the buying side, the industry that depends most on sugar is drinks. Sugar, starch and jaggery products are 26% of what drink makers buy in, India's official supply-use tables for 2023-24 show. That is an industry average, not a figure from any company's accounts.
The edible-oil cut of 23 September came with retail sunflower oil 19.5% dearer than a year earlier, Mint reported, citing consumer-affairs ministry data. On pulses, where the government is weighing lower duties, Business Standard reported on 1 October, wholesale prices as a group were 3.8% higher in August than a year earlier; arhar was 14% higher and gram unchanged. Pulses barely touch listed companies' costs: nine-tenths of the arhar sold to industry goes to grain mills, an industry in which Kiwaro holds one listed company. They reach institutional portfolios through food inflation, which was 5.95% in August and enters the consumer-price rate the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee weighs on 7 October.
Still, the mills' accounts stop at 30 June, before the 16% rise in the wholesale index, and their July–September results are not yet filed. New supply is also near: crushing of the new cane crop is expected to begin around 15 October in Maharashtra and around 20 October in western Uttar Pradesh, earlier than normal, BusinessLine reported.
What to watch
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| 15 October | the 100-tonne limit and the 15-day holding rule take effect; the quota for the first half of October ends. |
| 30 November | the stock limit ends. |
Data note: Mill figures are from standalone accounts and include these companies' ethanol, power and engineering businesses; profit before tax and one-off items is total income less total expenses. Stock is the inventory line of the balance sheet, which Kiwaro holds for five of the twelve; blank cells are companies whose balance sheets we do not hold. The government's price claims and the terms of its orders are as reported by the outlets named, and Kiwaro has no daily retail or mill-gate price series.
